Last chance to March to Box Office Madness!

You must get your entry in to me by Thursday night 11:59 PM (Pacific) to be eligible. Good luck! Click the banner above for the full rundown of rules and to get your entry form. More details, including the expanded prize pool, coming soon. In the meantime, so you know that I'm no cheater, here's my bracket.

And then...

March to Box Office Madness 2011

It's back for a third year!

If you're a fan of sports at all, or have ever worked in an office, there's a good to great chance that you're aware of the phenomenon that strikes America this time of year. That's right - it's March Madness, the 64 (er, 68) team college basketball tournament that drains efficiency from thousands of companies as workers kill their time filling out their brackets and subsequently trying to sneak in actually watching the games of the first few rounds of the tournament. It's one big semi-gambling semi-orgy - and everyone semi-loves it.

The idea:
With the NCAA tournament in full force, and with my joint film and sports appreciation, I got the idea to run a box office game the same way that the tournament is run. 32 films, one box office champion, many shining moments.

So, what you'll do is click on the link provided below, download your bracket, fill it by picking the movie for each matchup that you think will have the higher box office total, and send it to me by March 31.

The rules:
1. For each matchup, select which film will have the higher box office. Continue through the bracket until a champion has been crowned.
2. Scoring per round will be 1-2-4-8-12, for a possible total of 76 points (see table in workbook).
3. For the tie-breaker, enter your predicted top 5 films (box office) from the ones listed. One point for will be rewarded for each correct film, and an additional point for proper placement, for a potential 10 points. In the case of a tie, if one person's tie-breaker portion is not filled out, the other will win.
4. Brackets MUST be turned in (sent to blogcabins@yahoo.com) no later than March 31.
5. Box office data will be counted from April 1 - September 25, 2011.
6. One entry per person.

The prizes:
Still slightly up in the air (as usual). I'm throwing in (at minimum) a $25 gift card to AMC Theaters and a t-shirt, but as with last year's booty, I was hoping to get the community-at-large involved in the prize-giving (I'd like to have prizes for the top 3 finishers), so if there's something you can offer to the prize pool, please let me know. Hopefully, we can get a nice prize pack going (more on this later). We had 34 players the first year and 38 last year, so just a few items will make it that much more worth it.

The link to your bracket (if having troubles - right click, Save Target As):

http://blogcabins.webs.com/March%20to%20Box%20Office%20Madness2011.xls

* Please enter your picks using the same titles I have entered in the master bracket, even if they aren't technically accurate; slight changes are made for formatting issues, and having the names match makes the scoring go that much quicker. Please don't re-format the file in any way if possible. Enter your names and picks and go! *

The banner:
Finally, what fun would this be if it's just a few people? This game is open to EVERYONE. I want this to be BIG! Below is a banner, and I'd love it if you'd put it on your site as well (if possible). Let's do this right! Good luck!










The code:
<a href="http://largeassmovieblogs.blogspot.com/2011/03/march-to-box-office-madness-2011.html" target="_blank"><img border="0" alt="Large Association of Movie Blogs" src="http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y82/dyjafi/marchboxbanner200.jpg"/></a>

Good luck, and be sure to get me your brackets by March 31! Any questions, comments, suggestions, or prize offerings, email me at blogcabins@yahoo.com.

And then...

Box office boom?

Twenty-seven films earned $100 million or more at the box office in 2010, down from 32 in 2009 and 29 in 2008. You have to go back to 2006 to find a year in which fewer films topped the $100 mil mark, though with an average ticket price more than $1.30 cheaper, that's no surprise. Ticket sales and total grosses both dropped compared to their 2009 levels. In hindsight, this doesn't surprise me. When I glance at the list of films that were released last year, I don't 13 films that the collective 'we' might have labeled as surefire hits:

* Toy Story 3 * Iron Man 2 * The Twilight Saga: Eclipse * Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 * Inception * The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader * Sex and the City 2 (note: this failed to reach $100 mil) * TRON * Clash of the Titans * The A-Team (failed to reach $100 mil) * Alice in Wonderland * Grown Ups * Despicable Me

One could make arguments about any number of other films, from Tangled to How to Train Your Dragon to The Last Airbender, but those are the ones I'm going with, and as you see, not even all of them managed to hit the milestone.

Contrast that to 2011. I recently took place in Anomalous Material's movie version of a fantasy football auction draft, in which a group of us bid on films that we thought would score critically and commercially over the course of the next year or so. I was awestruck at the number of 'tentpoles' scheduled to hit theaters not only over the not-really-summer season (April-August), but all year long. From this year's slate, I've compiled a list of 24 films that I expect to top $100 million this year:

* Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II * The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part I * Transformers: Dark of the Moon * Cars 2 * Kung Fu Panda 2 * X-Men First Class * Thor * Captain America: The First Avenger * Green Lantern * Rio * Zookeeper * Super 8 * The Adventures of Tintin: the Secret of the Unicorn * Scream 4 * Fast Five * Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides * The Hangover Part II * Cowboys & Aliens * Puss in Boots * Happy Feet 2 * Rise of the Apes * Sherlock Holmes 2 * Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked * Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol

Keep in mind two things: 1) I'm probably overlooking some hits as it is, and 2) this doesn't even take into account the surprise hits that almost no one is expecting to connect on a mega scale, like with The Karate Kid and True Grit in 2010.

Are you overwhelmed with the number of 'blockbusters' hitting theaters this year? Do you think it will be a record year not only for grosses but for tickets sold? Do you plan on seeing significantly more films this year?


* All statistics courtesy of Box Office Mojo.

And then...

March to Box Office Madness 2010 Final Results

We have a winner! Some six months later, the spring/summer box office season can finally be declared finished, and with it, the March to Box Office Madness 2010 game.

It was a tight race all the way down to the wire, but our winner, with 65 points (out of a possible 76) is Justin G., who topped the "record" for total points (I say "record" because this is only the second year of the game) of 64 points by last year's winner, Wayne (of Reel Whore). (Wayne ended this year tied for 14th with 49 points.) Bringing up the rear, with an impossible 10 points, was Clarabela, who obviously will need a partner next year (sorry, I had to call you out - it takes talent to score that low in this game!).

As it happens, I got 2nd place with 62 points, but since I was one of the prize-givers for 2nd place (see below), I'm going to defer. The prize I was scheduled to give to the 2nd place winner will be added to the 1st place booty; likewise, I'll ask Wayne to transfer his 2nd place offering to the 3rd place player, Neil A, who tallied 60 points. I will be in touch with all prize winners and offerers in the next few days to co-ordinate efforts.

First place:
* From Rachel of Rachel's Reel Reviews, a $25 gift certificate to a large movie theater chain (one in the area of the winner),

* From Joshua of The Discordic Adventures of Fnord, a set of five DVDs, including A Nightmare on Elm Street (Limited Special), My Super Ex-Girlfriend, Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story, Bill & Ted's Excellent Adventure, and Revolver.

Second Place:
* From me, the standard DVD of your choosing (up to $19.99) from Amazon, (going to the first place winner)

* From Wayne, a set of two DVDs, Transformers and Spider-Man 3. As Wayne stated, "Both of those should be appropriate since they are summer box office breakers." (going to the third place winner)

Third Place:
* From This Guy of This Guy Over Here, "If I finish my eBook by then, I'll be happy to throw that in the pool of prizes... value will be $4.99 haha... but that's a big IF,"

* From me, a brand new t-shirt of insignificant value.

To view the final bracket in PDF form, click here (or if you wish to save, do a "Save Target As"): http://blogcabins.webs.com/march2madnessmaster2010final.pdf

Here are the complete and final standings; if you think I've made an error, be sure to let me know within three (3) days of this post. Due to the possibility of an error, prizes will not be sent until such time has passed. Click here to read all about the game.

Finally - THANKS FOR PLAYING! I look forward to doing it again next year.

NAME	TOTAL
Justin G.	65
Dylan	62
Neil A.	60
T.L. bugg	57
Joshua R.	57
Lindsay S.	55
Fitz	53
Keith	52
This Guy Over Here	51
Luke T.	51
Ruben	51
JacksSmirkingRevenge	50
Dodge This!	50
Nick	49
Wayne	49
Jess	48
Andy H.	47
Matt N.	47
John B.	47
Alex S.	47
Scott K.	46
Sebastian G.	44
Mike M.	43
Daniel	43
BD79	41
Travis M.	40
Linda S.	40
Jason S.	38
R.D. P.	37
Rachel	37
Scot N.	37
Joaquin	35
Kid Vegas	34
Vancetastic	33
Aiden R.	32
Andrew K.	32
Michaël P.	30
Clarabela	10

All box office data from Box Office Mojo.

And then...

March to Box Office Madness 2010 scoring update (through 7/19)

Though the March to Box Office Madness game technically won't end until late September, I'm going to be periodically posting updates to the standings.

We're at about the halfway point, as 16 matchups (of varying worth) have been decided. The next two weeks, with Salt and Dinner for Schmucks, will put an end to a few more matchups.

Currently, there are 26 available points (there will be a total of 76 possible by the time the game ends). If you think I've made an error, be sure to let me know. We have 38 total players. Click here to read all about the game and/or to see the full bracket.

NAME	TOTAL
Lindsay S.	26
Fitz	24
This Guy Over Here	24
Luke T.	23
Scott K.	23
Sebastian G.	23
Daniel	22
Dylan	22
Justin G.	22
Nick	22
Ruben	22
JacksSmirkingRevenge	22
Andy H.	21
Dodge This!	21
Wayward Jam	21
Jess	21
Mike M.	21
BD79	20
John B.	20
Matt N.	20
Rachel	20
Travis M.	20
Aiden R.	19
Alex S.	19
Jason S.	19
Keith	19
Neil A.	19
Joaquin	18
R.D. P.	18
T.L. bugg	18
Andrew K.	17
Joshua R.	17
Scot N.	17
Kid Vegas	15
Linda S.	13
Vancetastic	12
Michaël P.	11
Clarabela	4

All box office data from Box Office Mojo.

And then...

ShoWest Stars of Tomorrow

Over the course of listing "achievements" of Tom Cruise's for last week's Favored Five about him, I recalled the ShoWest Awards, handed out by the National Association of Theater Owners (NATO). I remembered reading about these awards from years ago, back when Premiere Magazine was still around and they regularly covered them. The bulk of these awards were pretty obvious, kind of like the Billboard Awards - if an album was the top selling one of a given year on the Billboard charts, the odds that said album would win a Billboard award were, oh, even money. The ShoWest awards were handed out by theater owners, so in turn, the producers and stars whose films made the most money at the box office were - whaddaya know - winners.

I seemed to think that Cruise had been handed out a "star of the decade"-type award for his combined box office during either the 80s or the 90s, but that wasn't the case. Tom Hanks won a "Box Office Star of the Decade" award in 1999, but no one won one for the 90s, and Harrison Ford won "Box Office Star of the Century"...in 1994. Interesting choice, there.

Anyway, while researching all this, I was reminded of another award that they handed out - the titular "Star of Tomorrow" award, handed out sporadically until 1990, when an award was then handed out annually to one or more male and female stars. Since it's always fun to look back at the past predictions of others and chuckle, I saw an opportunity. Thus, I'll go through every award handed out (the first was granted in 1978) and offer a grade, as well as commentary where I see fit.

Make no mistake - I don't pretend to think that predicting who the stars of tomorrow - box office or otherwise - is a simple task, but still...some of these. Wow. You'll see:

Year	Sex	Actor(s)	Comment	Grade
1978	M	Mark Hamill	Easy pickings for the committee this year; however, outside of SW, Hamill has had no effect on the box office whatsoever	B-
1983	M	David Keith	An Officer and a Gentlemen proved to be a fluke; Keith has carved out a nice career as a character actor, but not much beyond that.	C+
1983	F	Shelley Long	Though I've never liked her, she's certainly been a star, and for many decades (on TV if not film).	A-
1985	M	Eric Stolz	Known quantity, has "starred" in many a film, but never an A-lister.	B+
1985	F	Kelly LeBrock	Can you say one-hit wonder? Ok, that's not true - Hard to Kill FTW - but close enough.	C
1989	F	Carey Lowell/Talisa Soto	Law & Order / …Mortal Kombat? Apparently, they put way too much stock into the potential success of Licence to Kill.	C+/D+
1990	M	Johnny Depp		A+
1990	F	Winona Ryder		B+
1991	M	Richard Greico	LOLOLOL	D-
1991	F	Robin Givens	The Boomerang doth come back.	C+
1992	F	Nicole Kidman	Thanks, Tom!	A
1992	M	Stephen Dorff	A yo-yo, this one. Making a comeback (again) with Sofia Coppola's next film, Somewhere.	B-
1993	M	Brad Pitt	Um, yeah.	A+
1993	F	Juliiette Lewis	His former GF…not so much, but not bad.	B+
1994	M	Chris O'Donnell	Still hanging around, but has never lived up to the potential of Scent of a Woman.	B
1994	F	Tia Carrere	Still hanging around, but has never lived up to the potential of Wayne's World.	B-
1995	F	Julia Ormond	Was supposed to be THE next big star after Legends of the Fall. Then Sabrina bombed, as did her career pretty much.	C+
1995	M	Will Smith/Martin Lawrence	Too easy.	A+/B+
1996	F	Cameon Diaz	I figured this for a no-brainer on their part, but after The Mask in 1994, Diaz starred in mostly indies. Either way, she's a mega-star.	A
1996	M	Greg Kinnear		B+
1997	F	Claire Danes	My So-Called Career.	B-
1997	M	Howie Long	Not as funny as Grieco, but the former NFLer's acting career stalled quickly, if it even ever took off.	C-
1998	M	Matt Damon	I don't know about them, but I knew he'd be huge immediately upon seeing School Ties in 1992. Ok, that's not true at all.	A
1998	F	Minnie Driver		B
1999	M	Giovanni Ribisi	He's a solid (and respected) actor, but he's yet to become any sort of box office star.	B-
1999	F	Heather Graham	Had a good stretch there for awhile.	B-
2000	F	Hilary Swank	2-time Best Actress. 'Nuff said.	A-
2000	M	Michael Clarke Duncan	Anyone else see him play the heavy in Daredevil. Anyone?	C
2001	M	Heath Ledger	Everyone knows his name, but he wasn't a box office star until after he'd died.	B+
2001	F	Shannon Elizabeth	Now THIS is a one-hit wonder.	C-
2002	M	Josh Hartnett	WTF happened to this guy? He and James Franco taking each other's parts?	C+
2002	F	Naomi Watts	The Cate Blanchett of Whichever Country Blanchett's Not From.	B+
2003	F	Alison Lohman	It's not too late, but the train is still waiting at the station.	B-
2003	M	LL Cool J	Where did this come from? He'd been a known quantity for at least 15 years, and had been acting regularly for a decade prior.	C+
2004	F	Jennifer Garner	She's a star, but how big? The jury's still out.	B
2004	M	Ryan Gosling	See Ribisi, Giovanni.	B
2005	M	Hayden Christensen	What an obvious choice, and it still has backfired terribly.	D
2005	F	Jessica Biel		A-
2006	M	Brandon Routh	Strike one.	C+
2006	F	Jennifer Hudson	Strike two.	C+
2007	F	Emma Roberts	Too young to say for sure.	TBD
2007	M	Shia LaBeouf	Not much older, but certainly has a nice box office record on his resume.	A-
2008	F	Abigail Breslin	Getting there, maybe.	B
2008	M	Emile Hirsch	See Gosling, Ryan.	B-
2009	F	Briana Evigan, Leah Pipes, Rumer Willis, Jamie Chung, Audrina Patridge, Margo Harshman	AKA the 'stars' of Sorority Row. I guess this award is for sale annually.	F
2009	M	Chris Pine	Another safe bet - who know how it'll turn out.	TBD
2010	M	Alex Pettyfer	I've never even heard of this guy. Looks like he's the star of Beastly, along with…	D-
2010	F	Vanessa Hudgens	…this Disney/naughty video chick. Yup, the award is officially for sale. At least I've heard of her…	C+

And then...

Last chance to March to Box Office Madness!

You must get your entry in to me by Thursday night 11:59 PM (Pacific) to be eligible. Good luck! Click the banner above for the full rundown of rules and to get your entry form. More details, including the expanded prize pool, coming soon. In the meantime, so you know that I'm no cheater, here's my bracket.

And then...

March to Box Office Madness 2010!

It's back!

Due to circumstances beyond my control, there's a limited window of opportinuty to get in on the game - today is March 23 and all entries must be submitted to be no later than midnight, April 2. The good news is that it shouldn't take but a few minutes for you to complete the entire process.

If you're a fan of sports at all, or have ever worked in an office, there's a good to great chance that you're aware of the phenomenon that strikes America this time of year. That's right - it's March Madness, the 64 (er, 65) team college basketball tournament that drains efficiency from thousands of companies as workers kill their time filling out their brackets and subsequently trying to sneak in actually watching the games of the first few rounds of the tournament. It's one big semi-gambling semi-orgy - and everyone semi-loves it.

The idea:
With the NCAA tournament in full force, and with my joint film and sports appreciation, I got the idea to run a box office game the same way that the tournament is run. 32 films, one box office champion, many shining moments.

So, what you'll do is click on the link provided below, download your bracket, fill it by picking the movie for each matchup that you think will have the higher box office total, and send it to me by April 2.

The rules:
1. For each matchup, select which film will have the higher box office. Continue through the bracket until a champion has been crowned.
2. Scoring per round will be 1-2-4-8-12, for a possible total of 76 points (see table in workbook).
3. For the tie-breaker, enter your predicted top 5 films (box office) from the ones listed. One point for will be rewarded for each correct film, and an additional point for proper placement, for a potential 10 points. In the case of a tie, if one person's tie-breaker portion is not filled out, the other will win.
4. Brackets MUST be turned in (sent to blogcabins@yahoo.com) no later than April 2.
5. Box office data will be counted from April 2 - September 20, 2010.
6. One entry per person.

The prizes:
Still slightly up in the air, but most likely the same kind of deal as done in year's past (a t-shirt and a DVD of your choosing from Amazon.com valued at up to $19.99). However, this year, I was hoping to get the community involved in the prize-giving (to paraphrase Forrest Gump, I am not...a rich...man), so if there's something you can offer to the prize pool, please let me know. Hopefully, we can get a nice booty going. We had 34 players last year, so just a few items will make it that much more worth it.

The link to your bracket (if having troubles - right click, Save Target As):

http://blogcabins.webs.com/March%20to%20Box%20Office%20Madness2010.xls

* Please enter your picks using the same titles I have entered in the master bracket, even if they aren't technically accurate; slight changes are made for formatting issues, and having the names match makes the scoring go that much quicker. Please don't re-format the file in any way if possible. Enter your names and picks and go! *

The banner:
Finally, what fun would this be if it's just a few people? This game is open to EVERYONE. I want this to be BIG! I've made the banner that you see in the sidebar, and I'd love it if you'd put it on your site as well (if possible). Let's do this right! With any luck, everyone will be doing it next year.










The code:
<a href="http://largeassmovieblogs.blogspot.com/2010/03/march-to-box-office-madness-2010.html" target="_blank"><img border="0" alt="Large Association of Movie Blogs" src="http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y82/dyjafi/marchboxbanner200.jpg"/></a>

Good luck, and be sure to get me your brackets by April 2! Any questions, comments, suggestions, or prize offerings, email me at blogcabins@yahoo.com.

And then...

A Startling Revelation (maybe)

I just learned that Alice in Wonderland, the movie I pushed for a boycott of, is breaking all kinds of records at the box office, earning something like $116 million in its opening weekend. My powers of persuasion and/or my scope is weak. I figured that a large part of its success was due to a dearth of kids movies since Christmas-time, with Tooth Fairy being the only one that really came to mind. I knew it was more or less a failure, but I was curious as to just how big of one it was. So I headed on over to Box Office Mojo and looked at the chart for 2010, where I saw that it has made ~$55 million to date.

And that's when I stumbled upon something much more interesting.

As of right this second, I've seen just three of the top 20 box office grossers (The Book of Eli, Daybreakers, Shutter Island) so far this year. It's not like I'm a theatrical hermit, either, seeing ~75 movies a year. On the other hand, I've seen three (really four, as they combine the Oscar Shorts into one entry somehow; Animated Shorts, Live Action shorts, The Ghost Writer, Saint John of Las Vegas) of #21-71.

Because I'm an elitist snob, this makes me somewhat proud, and reminds me of what it's like when I look at the Billboard Top 40 albums these days. Music plays a constant role in my life, yet my tastes are so far gone from the pop charts (as are most people over the age of 12, I believe) that I usually own no more than two or three of those top 40, and I've never even heard a song from probably half (and I consider myself to be pretty knowledgeable of overall pop culture goings on).

Well, now it's passed over to film, though I admit that this probably has more to do with generally crappy January/February crappy fare than anything else, and had I looked at the same list on the same date in previous years, I might not be so surprised now. Still, just three of the top 20? This means you're failing, Hollywood. At least with me.

And then...

March to Box Office Madness final results

Though I had originally stated that March to Box Office Madness wouldn't technically end until late September, I look at the yearly box office totals and I'm declaring it safe to call the competition. There's enough separation between the contending films, and not enough time for any film to pass another, what with most of them in "minor earnings" positions with most of them having been released 8-12 weeks ago.

So, from a total of 32 films we are down to one summer box office champion (Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, with a hair over $400,000,000 in box office receipts), and from 34 players in this little game, we are down to one champion. Congratulations to Wayward Jam (aka Wayne) of Reel Whore on his winning bracket (as it so happens, Wayne came in 2nd in last year's Summer of LAMB box office contest - he clearly has a future in box office prognostication!). From a possible 76 points, Wayne racked up 64, enough to win the competition by a single point over his closest competitor, Keith of Kano's Kogitation. For his win, Wayne has won a Blog Smog t-shirt provided by Dentyne as well as the DVD of his choosing from Amazon (up to $19.99).

To view the final bracket in PDF form, click here (or if you wish to save, do a "Save Target As"): http://www.freewebs.com/blogcabins/march2madnessmaster2.pdf

Here are the complete and final standings; if you think I've made an error, be sure to let me know within three (3) days of this post. Due to the possibility of an error, prizes will not be sent until such time has passed. Click here to read all about the game.

Finally - THANKS FOR PLAYING! I look forward to doing it again next year.

NAME	TOTAL
Wayne	64
Keith	63
Linda S.	58
BD79	57
Jess	56
Anders	55
Shane C.	54
Rachel	51
Rik F.	48
Dylan	47
Alex D.	46
Daniel G.	46
Scott M.	45
Nick	44
TC K.	43
Ross	42
Friend Mouse	42
T.L. Bugg	40
Wendymoon	40
Clara M.	38
Jim B.	36
dreamrot	36
Chaka	35
Ivan S.	33
Josh L.	32
Nayana A.	32
Joseph D.	31
James H.	31
Mikey F.	31
Derek	28
Piper	23
Jason S.	22
Stephanie	22
Rick B.	19

All box office data from Box Office Mojo.

And then...

March to Box Office Madness scoring update (through 7/19)

Though the March to Box Office Madness game technically won't end until late September, I'm going to be periodically posting updates to the standings. It's been some time since the game started, so I figured now was a good time.

We're far enough along that a general shape is starting to show up in the brackets, with one region complete. However, we still have a long way to go, as evidenced by some of the other regions, where as few as one matchup has been decided. To view the current bracket in PDF form, click here (or if you wish to save, do a "Save Target As"): http://www.freewebs.com/blogcabins/march2madnessmaster.pdf

To date, there are 20 available points (there will be a total of 76 possible by the time the game ends). Out of 34 players, we have but one perfect bracket thus far. Here's the complete standings; if you think I've made an error, be sure to let me know. Click here to read all about the game.

NAME	TOTAL
Ross W.	20
Dylan	19
T.L. Bugg	18
Alex D.	17
Wayne	16
Ivan S.	16
Rik F.	14
dreamrot	13
clara m.	13
Wendymoon	13
Daniel G.	13
BD79	12
Nick	12
Jim B.	12
Linda S.	12
Rachel	12
Jess	12
Mikey Filmmaker	12
Anders	11
Josh L.	10
Keith	17 (scoring error fixed)
Scott M.	10
James H.	10
Nayana A.	10
Chaka	10
Jason S.	9
Derek	9
TC K.	9
Friend Mouse	9
Shane C.	9
Rick B.	8
Stephanie	8
Joseph D.	7
Piper	7

All box office data from Box Office Mojo.

And then...

March to Box Office Madness scoring update (through 5/17)

[Editor's note: I put this up at the LAMB, but realized that it ought to be published here, too, for those that signed up from here.]

Though the March to Box Office Madness game technically won't end until late September, I'm going to be periodically posting updates to the standings. It's been a couple months since the game started, so I figured now was a good time.

Though others could be called as decided, only four "matchups" have been outright, no doubt, for sure decided. Those four are (points per win in parenthesees): Angels & Demons vs. Observe and Report (1), Wolverine vs. 17 Again (1), State of Play vs. Dragonball: Evolution (1), and Wolverine vs. State of Play (2).

As such, there are 5 available points (there will be a total of 76 possible by the time the game ends). If you think I've made an error, be sure to let me know. We have 34 total players. Click here to read all about the game and/or to see the full bracket.

NAME	TOTAL
Anders	5
BD79	5
clara m.	5
Daniel G.	5
dreamrot	5
Dylan	5
Friend Mouse	5
Jess	5
Josh L.	5
Rachel	5
Rik F.	5
Ross W.	5
Wayne	5
Alex D.	4
Chaka	4
Jason S.	4
Jim B.	4
Linda S.	4
Mikey F.	4
Nick	4
Rick Bman	4
T.L Bugg	4
TC K.	4
Ivan S.	3
Wendymoon	3
James H.	2
Nayana A.	2
Scott M.	2
Shane C.	2
Stephanie	2
Derek	1
Joseph D.	1
Keith	1
Piper	1

All box office data from Box Office Mojo.

And then...

Blogger's Box Office Predictions on MovieBlips

Just a quick note to pimp something that I participated in recently. I was asked by Robyn of MovieBlips (a child of ShowHype, in a way) to answer a few questions about this summer's movies and their projected box office takes. It's a good read (similar to the questions I posed to the players of last year's Summer of LAMB) and - even better - I was far from the only LAMB to play along. Also taking part were the authors of The Center Seat, Are You Screening?, and The Screening Log. Here's the link:

http://movieblips.dailyradar.com/story/bloggers_summer_predictions/

Sidenote: an udpate to "March to Box Office Madness" will be coming to the LAMB very soon; there certainly aren't any matchups that have gone final, but I'll let everyone see how many folks are playing, what they picked, and I might even have some news about the prizes.

And then...

$24.8 million?

The top films at the box office each weekend for 2009:

Jan 2-4: Marley and Me, $24.2 million
Jan 9-11: Gran Torino, $29.5 million
Jan 16-18: Paul Blart: Mall Cop, $31.8 million
Jan 23-25: Paul Blart: Mall Cop, $21.6 million
Jan 30 - Feb 1: Taken, $24.7 million
Feb 6-8: He's Just Not That Into You, $27.8 million
Feb 13-15: Friday the 13th, $40.6 million
Feb 20-22: Tyler Perry's Madea Goes to Jail, $41 million
Feb 27 - Mar 1: Tyler Perry's Madea Goes to Jail, $16.2 million
Mar 6-8: Watchmen, $55.2 million
Mar 13-15: Race to Witch Mountain, $24.4 million
Mar 20-22: Knowing, $24.8 million

Here are the Rotten Tomatoes scores for each of those movies:

Marley and Me: 60%
Gran Torino: 80%
Paul Blart: Mall Cop: 32%
Taken: 57%
He's Just Not That Into You: 43%
Friday the 13th: 26%
Tyler Perry's Madea Goes to Jail: 26%
Watchmen: 64%
Race to Witch Mountain: 39%
Knowing: 25%

"No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public." - H.L. Mencken

Are you proud, America?

And then...

March to Box Office Madness!

If you're a fan of sports at all, or have ever worked in an office, there's a good to great chance that you're aware of the phenomenon that strikes America this time of year. That's right - it's March Madness, the 64 (er, 65) team college basketball tournament that drains efficiency from thousands of companies as workers kill their time filling out their brackets and subsequently trying to sneak in actually watching the games of the first few rounds of the tournament. It's one big semi-gambling semi-orgy - and everyone semi-loves it.

The idea:
Readers and longtime members of the LAMB will recall that, last year, we had a summer box office prediction game entitled the "Summer of LAMB." It was nothing fancy - just a number of people guessing what the top 10 movies would be, in order. However, with the NCAA tournament right around the corner, and with my joint film and sports appreciation, I got the idea to run a box office game the same way that the tournament is run. 32 films, one box office champion, many shining moments.

So, what you'll do is click on the link provided below, download your bracket, fill it by picking the movie for each matchup that you think will have the higher box office total, and send it to me by April 2.

The rules:

1. For each matchup, select which film will have the higher box office. Continue through the bracket until a champion has been crowned.
2. Scoring per round will be 1-2-4-8-12, for a possible total of 76 points (see table in workbook).
3. For the tie-breaker, enter your predicted top 5 films (box office) from the ones listed. One point for will be rewarded for each correct film, and an additional point for proper placement, for a potential 10 points. In the case of a tie, if one person's tie-breaker portion is not filled out, the other will win.
4. Brackets MUST be turned in (sent to blogcabins@yahoo.com) no later than April 2.
5. Box office data will be counted from April 3 - September 27, 2009.
6. One entry per person.

The prizes:

TBD. I just thought of this and put it together in the last couple days, so the exact prizes are not know at this point. But there will be prizes! Some ideas already in the mix are a custom-made t-shirt, DVDs, and possibly cash. Since the brackets aren't officially due until April 2, and the won't officially end until almost six months later, I think we're okay with this. Hopefully, though, everything will be figured out come April 2.

The link to your bracket (if having troubles - right click, Save Target As):

http://www.freewebs.com/blogcabins/March%20to%20Box%20Office%20Madness.xls

Finally, what fun would this be if it's just a few people? I want this to be BIG! I've made the banner that you see in the sidebar, and I'd love it if you'd put it on your site as well (if possible). Let's do this right! With any luck, everyone will be doing it next year.

The banner:










The code:

<a href="http://largeassmovieblogs.blogspot.com/2009/03/march-to-box-office-madness.html" target="_blank"><img border="0" alt="Large Association of Movie Blogs" src="http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y82/dyjafi/marchboxbanner200.jpg"/></a>


Good luck, and be sure to get me your brackets by April 2! Any questions, comments, suggestions, or prize offerings (sponsorships???), email me at blogcabins@yahoo.com.

And then...

Recycling Rocks: A Rant in the Key of E

Editor's note: Tuesday's Twelve Tags will be posted later today. In the meantime, get to know some vintage Fletch (secondary note: the box office figures listed were pre-2008, so no Dark Knight, etc.)...

Did you know that the list of top grossing movies at the box office looks like this?

1. Titanic $600.79 m
2. Star Wars $461.00 m
3. Shrek 2 $436.47 m
4. E.T. $434.97 m
5. Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace $431.09 m
6. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $419.65 m
7. Spider-Man $405.85 m
Box office figures thanks to http://www.boxofficereport.com/

Wait a sec! That's right - this list means nothing at all! See, the lists of "Top Grossers" don't typically adjust for inflation. When adjusted for inflation, Gone With the Wind becomes the all-time champ (with $1112.2 m) - without doing so, GWTW comes it at 71st. 71st! What kind of a system is this?

I've long had a problem with the use of weekend (and total) box office sales (dollars) as a means of measuring success. Look at the other forms of mass entertainment media and their main statistical measuring sticks: in the music industry, volume is the KPI, with special designations at 500,000 and 1,000,000 units. Television uses Nielsen ratings, which, flawed as they may be, are still a measure of total viewers, not an arbitrary, inflation-prone stat such as advertising dollars. The publishing industry also uses total units, like the music industry.

So, the obvious question is: Why doesn't Hollywood use "number of tickets sold" as its measuring stick? The short answer is "I don't know." I can speculate a number of reasons, from the standard "that's the way it has always been done" (likely). Another possibility is that the general public responds more to "instant history" and is thus more readily influenced to see a film if it is amongst the "Top 10 of All-Time" as opposed to being "Number 212 All-Time in Tickets Sold!" (more interesting, but not as likely).

Whatever the reason, I have been and forever will be bothered by the current tracking system, and unfortunately, I don't know what can be done about it (if anything). I do have the tiniest bit of good news, though: this site lists all movies with number of tickets sold all time. The list looks very similar to the "Adjusted Box Office" list, as it should be. One can only hope that someone or some group of "them" uses some common sense and picks up on this method in the future.

And then...

Summer of LAMB

So that the rest of the LAMBs can't call me a cheater in regards to the box office prediction contest, here's my prognostications for the summer movie season:

1. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $385M
2. Wall*E - $310M
3. The Dark Knight - $295M
4. Iron Man - $260M
5. Hancock - $245M
6. Kung Fu Panda - $200M
7. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian - $185M
8. Speed Racer - $165M
9. Get Smart - $150M
10. Pineapple Express - $145M

Also rans: The Incredible Hulk, Hellboy II, Tropic Thunder

Guaranteed Flop: The Love Guru - years away from the multiplex (in person, at least) and this is what Mike Myers has for us? Second choice for a flop is Sandler's You Don't Mess With the Zohan.

Rip Van Winkle Hit (sleeper): The Happening. A comeback for Night? Possibly...

3 Movies I'm Most Looking Forward To:

* The Dark Knight. Can Nolan catch lightning in a bottle twice? Will Ledger blow us away as expected? Will this round of Batmans fall prey to the same disease as the last (and most other superhero franchises) - namely, the inability of the producers to keep from tossing more and more people into the mix? I want the answers to those questions.

* Indiana Jones... I've tried not to get excited or have much of any expectations for it, but after nearly 20 years, it's definitely higher up on my "want to see" list than most any other summer flick, regardless of how good they might look.

* Hancock - I'm intrigued. To date, I've only seen the one trailer, but it's hard to go wrong with Smith as a July lead, and Jason Bateman livens things up.

3 Movies I'm Not Looking Forward To At All:

* Wanted - This couldn't look much worse. Morgan Freeman needs to get out of the "mentor" role asap (or the cousin to that, the mentor-who-turns-out-to-be-evil), and he needs to give Liam Neeson the same advice. And Jeremy Irons. Maybe the three should star in a movie where they mentor each other, then all turn on each other. That actually sounds like a lot of fun. Also a problem with Wanted: looks aside, doesn't Angie Jolie seem a bit old for McAvoy? I know if the genders were flopped no one would bat an eye (and that's unfortunate), and maybe it's cause McAvoy looks like he's 21, but they just seem like such a terrible romantic pairing.

* The Incredible Hulk - Why Ed, why? Every time I see Hulky and the evil Hulk "played" by Tim Roth, I can't help but think of The League of Extraordinary Gentleman, and that's never a good sign.

* Speed Racer - Never watched the show. The movie looks like it might be fun (or horrifying) on an acid trip, but that's about it. Perhaps I would have a different opinion if I were 10 years old.

And then...

Mid-term Report Card

Summer movie season is nearly (but not quite) over. With the release of the last big mega-movie (Harry Potter) coming last week, I thought this would be a good time to look back on my box office predictions from May. Sure, there are still some possible hits and sleepers left (The Bourne Ultimatum, Superbad, The Simpsons Movie), there's pretty much no chance in hell that any movie yet to be released will be cracking the top five of 2007.

Though I won't be confused with Nostradamus anytime soon, I did manage to get a few things right here and there. Let's do some reflecting. Below are my top 10, followed by their predicted gross and the expected final gross, and comments, and a grade:

1. Shrek the Third
Prediction: $280M
Expected Final Gross: $320M
Comment: Shrek will end up as number four overall, though I wasn't terribly off in terms of dollars.
Grade: B

2. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Prediction: $270M
Expected Final Gross: $310M
Comment: A little hard to gauge the final this soon after the opening. I'm basically looking at Transformers' opening and adding a few bucks.
Grade: B+

3. Spider-Man 3
Prediction: $240 million
Expected Final Gross: $335M
Comment: Yea, I blew this one pretty badly.
Grade: D

4. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Prediction: $195M
Expected Final Gross: $302M
Comment: But not as bad as this one.
Grade: F

5. Transformers
Prediction: $180M
Expected Final Gross: $305M
Comment: Low-balled this one, too, though, in my defense, people were all over the board on this one, with some estimates going over $400M.
Grade: C-

6. Surf's Up
Prediction: $170M
Expected Final Gross: $56M
Comment: Did I put Surf's Up here? I meant Ratatouille.
Grade: F

7. Fantastic Four: The Rise of the Silver Surfer
Prediction: $165M
Expected Final Gross: $135M
Comment: For some reason, from the trailer, I thought this looked better than the first. The reviews have effectively proved otherwise, and the business followed suit. Better luck next time. Grade: B-

8. The Bourne Ultimatum
Prediction: $160M
Expected Final Gross: TBD
Comment: The jury's still out on this one.
Grade: Incomplete

9. Knocked Up
Prediction: $150M
Expected Final Gross: $150M
Comment: Hey, even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Grade: A+

10. Evan Almighty
Prediction: $140M
Expected Final Gross: $105M
Comment: Unlike Fantastic Four, this looked bad from the start; however, since their really are no "fans of the "___ Almighty" franchise, this one just plain tanked (especially given its budget). Look for the Steve Carell backlash to continue with the upcoming Get Smart movie.

As for me? Aside from honing my techniques for next year, I'll be busy doing a voodoo dance in the hopes that Bourne comes close to my prediction; if not, I may need talking down from a ledge (or not).

Thanks to Box Office Report for additional reporting on this column.

And then...

The 1st Annual Summer Movie Preview

(Editor's note: I give up on formatting this for now. I will fix it later, but it's frustrating the hell out of me trying to make this look just right. I apologize for the sloppiness of it.)

Well, this has been over hyped, that's for sure (though I may be the only person noticing this phenomenon).

Anyway, I wanted to get my box office predictions down before the summer started so that I could come back to them in August or so and see how I had done (note: I am bad at this, as evidenced by prior posts in this space; for good predictions, please visit http://www.boxofficereport.com/).

As a self-professed movie geek, I have subscribed to Premiere magazine for many years now. Each year for summer, they publish an issue in which they give recaps and predictions for the top 20 films, with a look at some other films to keep an eye out for as well. This is basically the same concept - it ain't rocket science, after all. First up, the predictions (which, thanks to my awesome job on Spider-Man 3 are guaranteed to be wrong. Nonetheless, I'm sticking to my guns and still putting it where I originally said it would be. You never know...):

1. Shrek the Third
This film is virtually guaranteed to disappoint everyone who sees it (a la Spider-Man 3), but it's also destined to become a smash. It's also one of a few big-name kids movies coming out (some others being Ratatouille and Surf's Up) this summer, and it's the first released. From the previews, it looks like more of the same here, though some "dronkeys" (Donkey's kids with the dragon chica) are thrown into the mix.. Add some fart jokes, some zany pop-culture references, and blend.

Prediction: $280 million

2. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Midget Daniel Radcliffe and the rest of the gang are back in this fifth episode of the Potter saga. Expect it to keep getting darker, with more appearances by Lord Rhinoplasty and more fights between the Gryffindors and Snapes, or something like that. Somehow this series has avoided much of a letdown from one movie to the next (though the third, Prisoner of Azkaban, is the best of the bunch), so I expect this film to be no exception, despite its whodat director (David Yates).

Prediction: $270 million

3. Spider-Man 3
This ground has already been covered. A major letdown, yet the masses (myself included) have already proven my prediction wrong. Oh well.

Prediction: $240 million

4. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Fun fact time: the first Pirates film clocked in at 143 minutes. Long, but understood, considering the amount of story told and all of the characters set up. The second film clocked in at 150 minutes, though it felt like it was about 6 hours too long and desperately needed an editor. But it ended on a cliffhanger, so people must be sucked in to the third, right? Well, this one comes in at a whopping 167 minutes - 17 minutes longer than the bloated second. 3 hours for a movie based on a thrill ride? I'll pass.

Prediction: $195 million

5. Transformers
I'm like a see-saw here. I'm putting this movie this high in spite of my instincts, and based solely on the hype and winning combination of Bay and Bruckheimer. For some reason, people are still drawn to them like moths to a flame. Meanwhile, this film has been made for 15-year old boys who probably have no idea what the difference is between Optimus Prime and Prime Rib. Then again, Shia LaBeouf is starring, and he's a hit with the kids. So who knows?

Prediction: $180 million

6. Surf's Up
Continuing the LaBeouf trend, here's his contribution to the animated kids movie genre. In what must (hopefully) become the last piece of animated penguins for some time, Shia voices a surfing penguin who must overcome a much bigger rival and...yada yada yada. As if the story matters - the kids will drag their parents kicking and screaming to this one.

Prediction: $170 million

7. Fantastic Four: The Rise of the Silver Surfer
While it's pretty well accepted that the first one was a bad film filled with bad acting and little to no story, it still made a boatload of money - enough to warrant this sequel. If you listen to the talk from the film's stars, they pretty much admit to the badness of the first and claim they were "chained to the constraints of an origin tale." Normally, the origin tales are the best in the series (Batman, Spider-Man, etc.), but I'm willing to cut them some slack. Heck, it can't get worse, can it? (And the effects do look pretty cool.)

Prediction: $165 million

8. The Bourne Ultimatum
Against all odds, I'm betting that this, too, will be a solid action flick. Despite having the slightest of plots for one movie, much less three, the Bourne series rolls on, with director Paul Greengrass (United 93) back again at the helm. For this installment, Matt Damon's Jason Bourne ventures back to the States to finally shut down the secret governmental agency that set him up in the first. Meanwhile, the series continues its tradition (and probably secret to its success) of featuring strong character actors onboard to complement Damon, including Chris Cooper, Brian Cox, Joan Allen, and David Straithairn.

Prediction: $160 million

9. Knocked Up
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see one climb higher up the list. Seth Rogen, the best part of The 40-Year Old Virgin, gets his own feature here, starring alongside Katherine Heigl as unprepared parents-to-be. Brought to you by the makers of Virgin - expect a hit.

Prediction: $150 million

10. Evan Almighty
Finally - the last sequel in the top 10. If you're keeping score at home, that's four "Part Threes," two "Part Twos," and a "Part Five," and that's not even counting Ocean's Thirteen, Hostel II, or Live Free or Die Hard (or any other sequels I may be missing). Hollywood ran out of ideas 10 years ago - at this point, it's just ridiculous. Everything can and will have a sequel if it is even remotely successful. Expect The 42-Year Old Virgin to hit theaters next year...

Prediction: $140 million

Other films to keep an eye out for:

* Sicko, the latest doc (tackling the medical industry) from Michael Moore.

* The Simpsons Movie, now with more Wiggum than ever before!

* 1408, a hit-or-miss horror/thriller featuring John Cusack and Samuel L. Jackson. Based on a story by Stephen King.

* Hot Rod, the first feature starring SNL hit Andy Samberg. He plays an accident-prone daredevil - physical comedy fans should be lining up right now.

That does it - I'm spent.

And then...

Do the math

In anticipation of not only the upcoming summer movie preview, but of summer itself, here's your chance to play Carnac and predict what will be the box office smash of the season. If you're really feeling wacky, post a comment with specific amounts...I know you can do it.

What will be this summer's biggest box office smash?
	Spider-Man 3
	Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
	Shrek the Third
	Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
	Live Free or Die Hard
	Transformers
	Knocked Up
	Surf's Up
	Ocean's Thirteen
	Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
	Evan Almighty
	The Bourne Ultimatum
	Other
Free polls from Pollhost.com

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PS - For posterity's sake since I probably won't finish the Summer Preview prior to Monday, my prediction for Spiderman 3's final box office take is: $240 million.

And then...