Summer movie season is nearly (but not quite) over. With the release of the last big mega-movie (Harry Potter) coming last week, I thought this would be a good time to look back on my box office predictions from May. Sure, there are still some possible hits and sleepers left (The Bourne Ultimatum, Superbad, The Simpsons Movie), there's pretty much no chance in hell that any movie yet to be released will be cracking the top five of 2007.Though I won't be confused with Nostradamus anytime soon, I did manage to get a few things right here and there. Let's do some reflecting. Below are my top 10, followed by their predicted gross and the expected final gross, and comments, and a grade:
1. Shrek the Third
Prediction: $280M
Expected Final Gross: $320M
Comment: Shrek will end up as number four overall, though I wasn't terribly off in terms of dollars.
Grade: B
2. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Prediction: $270M
Expected Final Gross: $310M
Comment: A little hard to gauge the final this soon after the opening. I'm basically looking at Transformers' opening and adding a few bucks.
Grade: B+
3. Spider-Man 3
Prediction: $240 million
Expected Final Gross: $335M
Comment: Yea, I blew this one pretty badly.
Grade: D
4. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Prediction: $195M
Expected Final Gross: $302M
Comment: But not as bad as this one.
Grade: F
5. Transformers
Prediction: $180M
Expected Final Gross: $305M
Comment: Low-balled this one, too, though, in my defense, people were all over the board on this one, with some estimates going over $400M.
Grade: C-
6. Surf's Up
Prediction: $170M
Expected Final Gross: $56M
Comment: Did I put Surf's Up here? I meant Ratatouille.
Grade: F
7. Fantastic Four: The Rise of the Silver Surfer
Prediction: $165M
Expected Final Gross: $135M
Comment: For some reason, from the trailer, I thought this looked better than the first. The reviews have effectively proved otherwise, and the business followed suit. Better luck next time. Grade: B-
8. The Bourne Ultimatum
Prediction: $160M
Expected Final Gross: TBD
Comment: The jury's still out on this one.
Grade: Incomplete
9. Knocked Up
Prediction: $150M
Expected Final Gross: $150M
Comment: Hey, even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Grade: A+
10. Evan Almighty
Prediction: $140M
Expected Final Gross: $105M
Comment: Unlike Fantastic Four, this looked bad from the start; however, since their really are no "fans of the "___ Almighty" franchise, this one just plain tanked (especially given its budget). Look for the Steve Carell backlash to continue with the upcoming Get Smart movie.
As for me? Aside from honing my techniques for next year, I'll be busy doing a voodoo dance in the hopes that Bourne comes close to my prediction; if not, I may need talking down from a ledge (or not).
Thanks to Box Office Report for additional reporting on this column.
