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Jan 21, 2009

Poll results; new poll; Oscar nomination predictions

Blog Cabins' readers have spoken - top two films of the year? No question, The Dark Knight (25%) and Wall*E (21%). In a distant third was "other" with 10% of the vote, followed by Slumdog Millionaire at 8%. Full results to your right.

New poll wants you to grade me. Over the course of 2+ years, Blog Cabins hasn't changed much. I still post a review of every film I see in the theater, but I've scaled back on the scope/length of them in the hopes of freeing up some time for me to bring you entertaining games (SGC, 12 Tags), dynamic features such as Burning Questions and FF-UN, along with TGITDNMAR and all the random stuff (oh, and the LAMB). Good idea, or get back to harder core reviews?

On to the pressing issue of the day. Oscar noms, as you must know, will be the deafening talk of the blogosphere as of early tomorrow morning. As such, it's my last chance to get some predix on paper so we can all marvel at my prognostication ability (or lack thereof). To wit:

(temporarily eschewing italics for film titles; please forgive me)

Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire
The Dark Knight
Milk
Gran Torino
Frost/Nixon

Comments: The first three are locks. I'd rather see any number of films make it over G.T. and F/N, such as Wall*E and The Wrestler, but I just don't see that happening. Switching out Ben Button for G.T. (I remembered that the Academy lurves Eastwood) might come back to bite me.

Best Actor
Frank Langella
Sean Penn
Mickey Rourke
Clint Eastwood
Leo DiCaprio

Comments: Yeah yeah, the first three are locks. I tend to think Clint is, too. That last one - well, many see Pitt as a strong possibility, and I may be over-analyzing, but I think people will recognize that it was a role that leaned too heavily on f/x and give it to an all-around acting performance. If not Leo, Richard Jenkins.

Best Actress
Kate Winslet (Rev Road)
Sally Hawkins
Meryl Streep
Anne Hathaway
Cate Blanchett (Button)

Comments: Here, the first four are locks. Blanchett is (shock!) the wild-card, as she's been snubbed by just about everyone else. I placed her here for two reasons: 1) she was indeed excellent in Button and 2) I just can't see the Academy voters picking someone from an underseen French film (Kristin Scott Thomas in I've Loved You So Long), an underseen American indie (Melissa Leo in Frozen River or Michelle Williams in Wendy & Lucy) or Winslet in The Reader, where she's being touted for Supp. Actress.

Hence, Blanchett's in. If not her, look to Angelina Jolie for Changeling.

Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger
Bob Downey, Jr. (Tropic Thunder)
Josh Brolin (Milk)
James Franco (Milk)
Michael Shannon (Rev Road)

Comments: A bit of a crapshoot category. Dev Patel (Slumdog) could sneak it, but I doubt it, Phil Sey Hoffman is probably a lock but I smell a snub (Academy might be sick of writing his name), Eddie Marsan (Happy-Go-Lucky) should be a lock but will get snubbed. Heck, I'd rather see Franco get picked for Pineapple Express, but that ain't gonna happen. What a toss-up. Of course, it's all for naught anyway. We already know who's winning...

Best Supporting Actress
Marisa Tomei
Penelope Cruz (VCB)
Viola Davis
Taraji P. Henson
Kate Winslet

Comments: Ah, the Supporting categories - the home to non-whites year in and year out. Pretty confident in this grouping; the only wild cards I see are the ladies of Rachel Getting Married (Rosemarie DeWitt, who deserves a spot, and Debra Winger, who definitely doesn't) and Amy Adams (who I'm sure will be left out).

Best Director
Clint Eastwood
David Fincher
Gus Van Sant
Danny Boyle
Christopher Nolan

Comments: Isn't Ron Howard always getting left out of the Best Director race when his films get a Best Pic nod? I swear, it seems like an annual tradition. Look for Fincher to take his spot. I could see Aronofsky sneaking into that spot as well...

Best Original Screenplay
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Synecdoche, New York
The Visitor
Vicky Christina Barcelona

Comments: Rooting for In Bruges...

Best Adapted Screenplay
Slumdog Millionaire
Frost/Nixon
Doubt
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Reader

Comments: None.

Get up early! The noms are announced at 5:30 AM Pacific.


13 people have chosen wisely: on "Poll results; new poll; Oscar nomination predictions"

Mrs Fletch said...

Suggestion: For those (few) of us who aren't movie geeks, would you please put the movie title next to the director or actor's name?

The Cheap-Arse Film Critic said...

I really don't think Dark Knight's getting a Best Picture nomination anymore, sadly. All it's momentum has gone away.

Nick said...

Wow... I'm such a pathetic movie geek. I didn't even realize the noms were coming out tomorrow.

Fletch said...

Cheap-Arse - I hope you're wrong. Though I don't see it winning Best Pic, I would view it as a travishamockery if it didn't even warrant a nomination (and I'm not even what I would call a rabid fan of it). There simply aren't 5 better films this year, superhero ties or not.

Nick - time to get out (on the blogoshpere) more. You workin' too hard? Got a teaching job yet?

Nick said...

Fletch: No teaching job just yet. Still searching. One good prospect, but that's about it. If I get that job, it has good perks and bad perks. The bad perks are that it only has one tiny movie theater that is currently ONLY showing 'Paul Blart', 'Bride Wars', and 'Hotel for Dogs'. Yeah... But the good perk is that it would only be about 20-30 minutes from San Antonio, which has movie theaters galore, including IMAX and possible art house theaters.

Nick said...

Oh, and if you didn't gather it from that post, I'd have to move for the job.

Fletch said...

Gathered.

I'd say that's a good perk. I'm guessing you'd like San Antonio, no?

And would that mean being out on your own for the first time? That's a giant perk in and of itself....

Nick said...

I don't know if I'd like it or not (San Antonio). I'm not the best person in the world with directions, and I can get lost awfully easy. And San Antonio is a MUCH MUCH bigger city than the one I currently live in (though I'd technically be moving to a town infinitesimally smaller than the one I currently live in). I'm sure I'd get used to it, though.

But yeah, it'd be the first time out on my own. And I do see that as a giant perk in and of itself :P .

RIPE Creative said...

I'm shocked Benjamin Button/Brad Pitt was nominated. Meh.

Kyle said...

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button struck me as a film trying to be an award nominee, rather than just being a good film. Overly schmaltzy with forced emotion, sorta how I think of Titanic. Don't think it deserved a Best Picture nomination, personally.

Sea_of_Green said...

Okay, I can accept Dark Knight being shut out of the Best Picture category (the Academy snobs supporting a super-hero movie, even one that's better than most movies out there? Yeah, right -- get real), since Heath Ledger did earn a well deserved nod. But, darnit, I'm sick to death of seeing the same people and same types of films nominated over and over and over ... It makes the Academy voters look lazy: "Hey, did Clint and Meryl have movies this year? Awesome -- easy votes, don't have to review THOSE movies now. We have time to hit the pool now!"

Grumble, grumble, grumble ...

Fletch said...

Kyle - agreed on Button. I don't have any distaste for Button, but I think it's a shame that it's the most nommed film and that it got a Best Pic nom.

S_o_G - that's a big reason why I didn't predict that either Phil Sey Hoffman or Amy Adams would get noms for Doubt (though I think Hoffman was more deserving). Streep was a lock given the weak competition in the Lead Actress category, but I figured people were sick of them (as they probably are of Blanchett as well, who I also thought deserving).

At least Clint didn't get a Best Actor nom.

Oh, and while we're here, Phil Sey Hoffman might've gotten a lead nom for Synecdoche. Probably deserved one, but the buzz never came...