Fletch sees the Future

Over the years, I've found that the guys (gals? I have no idea) over at boxofficereport.com do a pretty damn good job at predicting the weekly take at the movies, and they also have a ton of other great data, including databases of things like "Top Adjusted [gross box office] Films" and top "Month by Month" which lists the highest grossing films for each month of the year. Anyway, they're great and stuff.

However, I fear their aim with the highest profile films (so far) of 2007 is way off. As I pointed out here a few weeks back, they guessed that 300 would make $43M in its opening weekend. It made ~$70M - meaning they were off by about 40%. Not good.

As of today, they have Grindhouse forecasted for $23M, or, roughly half of what the Fletch-hated (yet unseen) Ghost Rider or Wild Hogs made in their first weeks.

Really? You sure about that?

Sure, Grindhouse is a long, R-rated film. Guess what - so was 300. And I believe (without having done market demographic research, mind you) that they have roughly the same demographic (mostly male, age 13-35 - assuming the 13 year olds can get in).

Fletch's Forecast for Grindhouse: $31 million