Best Motion Picture of the Year
* Babel
* The Departed
* Letters from Iwo Jima
* Little Miss Sunshine
* The Queen
Should: The Departed
Will: The Departed
Achievement in Directing
* Clint Eastwood for Letters from Iwo Jima
* Stephen Frears for The Queen
* Alejandro González Iñárritu for Babel
* Paul Greengrass for United 93
* Martin Scorsese for The Departed
Should: Clint Eastwood
Will: Martin Scorcese
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
* Leonardo DiCaprio for Blood Diamond
* Ryan Gosling for Half Nelson
* Peter O'Toole for Venus
* Will Smith for The Pursuit of Happyness
* Forest Whitaker for The Last King of Scotland
Should: Forest Whitaker
Will: Forest Whitaker
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
* Penélope Cruz for Volver
* Judi Dench for Notes on a Scandal
* Helen Mirren for The Queen
* Meryl Streep for The Devil Wears Prada
* Kate Winslet for Little Children
Should: Helen Mirren
Will: Helen Mirren
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
* Alan Arkin for Little Miss Sunshine
* Jackie Earle Haley for Little Children
* Djimon Hounsou for Blood Diamond
* Eddie Murphy for Dreamgirls
* Mark Wahlberg for The Departed
Should: Jackie Earle Haley
Will: Eddie Murphy
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
* Adriana Barraza for Babel
* Cate Blanchett for Notes on a Scandal
* Abigail Breslin for Little Miss Sunshine
* Jennifer Hudson for Dreamgirls
* Rinko Kikuchi for Babel
Should: Rinko Kikuchi
Will: Jennifer Hudson
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
* Cars
* Happy Feet
* Monster House
Should: Cars
Will: Cars
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
* After the Wedding - Denmark (Susanne Bier)
* Days of Glory (Indigènes) - Algeria (Rachid Bouchareb)
* The Lives of Others (Das Leben der Anderen) - Germany (Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck)
* Pan's Labyrinth - Mexico (Guillermo Del Toro)
* Water - Canada (Deepa Mehta)
Should: Pan's Labyrinth
Will: Pan's Labyrinth
Adapted Screenplay
* Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
* Children of Men
* The Departed
* Little Children
* Notes on a Scandal
Should: Children of Men
Will: The Departed
Original Screenplay
* Babel
* Letters from Iwo Jima
* Little Miss Sunshine
* Pan's Labyrinth
* The Queen
Should: Little Miss Sunshine
Will: Babel
4 people have chosen wisely: on "Give me the envelope already!"
This looks like a pretty wide open year for picture and director. I haven't seen Letters or Queen but would take The Departed over the other two. Just doesn't seem like a movie that the academy would select as best picture though, so I'm guessing that Babel will win. The work Greengrass did on United 93 was amazing and he should win (though again I haven't seen Letters or Queen), but I think and hope Scorsese wins that one.
I think process of elimination will give The Departed the win.
As well-intentioned and well-acted as Babel was (and as much as I would have liked to like it more), I just don't think it is seen as that great a picture.
Meanwhile, Little Miss Sunshine is too light (and loathed by the older voters, I'd assume), The Queen is good, but not great (and it's a biopic), and Letters may be fantasic (it's the only one of the five I haven't seen), but I just don't see it (or Clint) winning.
That leaves The Departed. Sure, it's violent - but otherwise I think it is a prototype Academy film. Somewhat epic, big cast of big names, prestige director, Nicholson. It's only other big knock is that it's a remake.
We'll see...
(By the way, I have yet to see United 93, but I've read some rave reviews recently. It's only a matter of time.)
I'm using these picks for my pool. You had better be right.
As our friend TMQ says: Picks guaranteed wrong or your money back.
The Academy can be full of surprises. That said, I've beat my wife and parents at least three years running, so I got that goin' for me, which is nice.
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